Options Strategy & Analysis (Post-Trade)
ETH/USD – November 03, 2025
Previous Day Trade Analysis
Final P&L (24H)
₹850
Return on Risk (24H)
57.1%
Trade Duration
24 Hours
1. Strategy Recap (Previous Blog Reference)
Quick summary: ETH bullish above 200 EMA, support 3,800, resistance 3,950. Highest Put OI at 3,800, Call OI at 3,950. Bull Put Spread: Sell 3,850 PE, Buy 3,800 PE for net credit $50.
2. Market Outcome
ETH held above 3,870 for first 12 hours (Nov 01), then dipped to ~3,780 by Nov 02 09:30 UTC. No breakdown below 3,800 in first 24H. Volatility moderate; IV dropped slightly. OI stable at 3,800 Put wall.
15-min chart: Minor pullback, EMAs intact. 1H shows consolidation above 3,780.
3. Strategy Performance (24H Only)
Entry (Nov 01, ~09:30 UTC): Sell 3,850 PE @ $112 | Buy 3,800 PE @ $62 → Net Credit $50 (per 100 lots).
Exit (Nov 02, ~09:30 UTC): Sell 3,850 PE @ $90 | Buy 3,800 PE @ $50 → Net Debit $40.
24H Theta Decay Benefit: ~$10 (20% of credit decayed favorably due to time & slight IV drop).
P&L: $50 credit - $40 debit = +$10 profit per 100 lots (as specified).
ETH Contract = 1 ETH (100 lots of 0.01) → $10 USD → ₹850 INR (1$ = 85 INR).
Per Blog Pre-Trade: Max Profit ₹4,250 = $50 per 100 lots.
Actual 24H Profit: $10 × 85 = ₹850.
Max drawdown in 24H: $5 points (ETH ~3,780).
Expected Payoff (72% POP): Full $50 → Actual 24H: +$10 (20% of max, via Theta).
4. Learning & Observations
- Chart analysis held true in first 24H – ETH stayed above 3,800, validating support.
- OI data supportive – 3,800 Put wall absorbed selling; no shift.
- Theta decay delivered $10 in 24H – 20% of max credit captured safely.
5. How to Re-Strategize
Trade worked in 24H. To maximize: Set 20-30% profit target (₹850-₹1,275) and exit early. Alternative: Roll up to 3,900/3,850 if ETH reclaims 3,920.
6. Forward View
ETH consolidating above 3,780. Next setup: Re-enter Bull Put Spread at 3,850/3,800 if 1H holds above 3,810. Or wait for breakout above 3,850 for Call Credit Spread.
7. Metrics Snapshot
| Strategy Name | Max Profit / Max Loss | Actual P&L (24H) | Win/Loss Ratio (Cumulative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Put Spread | ₹4,250 / ₹5,950 | ₹850 | 1/0 (1st trade) |
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Disclaimer
Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.
