Options Strategy & Analysis (Post-Trade)
BTC/USD – October 31, 2025
Previous Day Trade Analysis
Final P&L
₹4,216
Return on Risk
50%
Trade Duration
1 Day
1. Strategy Recap
Bearish bias on 15-min chart: price below 200 EMA, rejecting EMA stack, Stoch RSI oversold. Option chain showed max Call OI at 108,500 (resistance) & Put OI at 106,000 (support). Selected Bear Call Spread: Sell 108,500 CE @ $183.44, Buy 109,000 CE @ $84.24 → Net Credit $99.2 (₹8,432). Entry below 108,430; target 50% profit or exit if >108,700.
2. Market Outcome
BTC opened ~109,763, dipped to 109,529, then rallied to 110,098 before closing at 109,700.79 (-0.06%). No breakout above 108,700; remained range-bound below resistance. OI shift: Call OI added at 110,000+, Put OI stable at 106,000. Volatility compressed (IV ~41%). Updated 15-min chart shows rejection at 110,000 and close below entry zone.
3. Strategy Performance
Entry (30-Oct ~21:00 UTC): Sell 108,500 CE @ $183.44, Buy 109,000 CE @ $84.24 → Net Credit $99.2.
Exit (31-Oct ~15:00 UTC, 50% target hit): Sell leg @ $136.30, Buy leg @ $87.10 → Net Debit $49.2.
24H Theta decay ~$0.85 per lot on short leg.
P&L: $99.2 - $49.2 = +$49.6 points → ₹4,216 (0.1 BTC lot, 1$ = 85 INR).
Max drawdown: -$15 (₹1,275) when BTC touched 110,098.
Expected Payoff (50% target): +$49.6 → Achieved exactly.
4. Learning & Observations
- Bearish chart bias held; 108,500 acted as firm resistance.
- OI data supportive — Call OI buildup above strike confirmed capping.
- No execution mistake; 50% profit rule disciplined exit.
5. How to Re-Strategize
Trade worked — to maximize safely: Roll credit to 110,000/110,500 strike post-exit for additional theta collection while keeping delta neutral. Alternative: Switch to Iron Condor by adding 106,000/105,500 Put spread if IV rises.
6. Forward View
Resistance now shifted to 110,000; support 108,000. Wait for close below 109,000 with Stoch RSI re-entering oversold to re-enter Bear Call Spread at 110,000/110,500.
7. Metrics Snapshot
| Strategy Name | Bear Call Spread |
| Max Profit / Max Loss | ₹8,432 / ₹41,580 |
| Actual P&L | ₹4,216 |
| Win/Loss Ratio (Cumulative) | 1/0 (100%) |
Recommended Trading Platforms
Disclaimer
Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.
