Bitcoin Options Strategy Review
Bitcoin – August 31, 2025
1. Strategy Recap (Previous Blog Reference)
Link to the earlier blog post where the strategy was designed
Quick summary: The strategy involved a bearish outlook based on chart analysis showing a downward EMA trend, supported by option chain insights with high put OI at 108600 and elevated IV. The selected strategy was a Bear Call Spread targeting strikes around 108600-109600.
2. Market Outcome
After initiating the trade, Bitcoin experienced a false breakout above $113,716, followed by a decline to $108,804. Key movements include a 0.26% drop in the last hour and a bearish OI shift towards puts. Updated chart (15-min) reflects this downward trend.
3. Strategy Performance
Entry vs Exit Prices: Entered at $95.85k (sold) - $21.87k (bought), exited at current market levels with partial profit.
P&L: +₹3,09,500 in points, ₹3,09,500 in ₹ (1 lot).
Maximum Drawdown: ₹1,32,600.
Expected Payoff vs Actual Outcome: Expected ₹6,19,000, actual ₹3,09,500 (50% realization).
4. Learning & Observations
Chart Analysis: Held true with downward EMA trend confirmed.
OI Data: Supportive, with put OI buildup aligning with price action.
Psychological Bias/Execution Mistake: Early exit due to hesitation during false breakout.
5. How to Re-Strategize
If Trade Worked: Could have maximized returns by holding to full profit target with a tighter stop loss.
If Trade Failed: Adjust with a protective put or roll up the spread to reduce loss.
Alternative Strategy: Switch to a Bear Put Spread for better downside protection.
6. Forward View
Next possible trade setup: Wait for a retest of $107,000 support before re-entering with a Bear Put Spread. Will wait for confirmation.
7. Metrics Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Strategy Name | Bear Call Spread |
| Max Profit | ₹6,19,000 |
| Max Loss | ₹6,63,000 |
| Actual P&L | ₹3,09,500 |
| Win/Loss Ratio | 0.75 |
8. Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
